Page 805

Conservatives warned against retaliation from the beginning: It was exactly what happened after the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs that worsened the Great Depression.

Undoing the Normalization of Protectionism. Inertia is one of the strongest forces in politics. Radical new policies can become the new normal very quickly and are extremely difficult to unwind if they backfire. This happened with the Trump Administration’s progressive turn on protectionism. The Biden Administration quickly undid the Trump Administration’s conservative regulatory reforms but left its progressive, self-defeating trade policies in place—in many cases even strengthening them.

Two presidential Administrations is a long time in politics, and the next conservative Administration will have a tough time getting tariff relief past a bureaucracy that dislikes change and special interests that will fight hard to preserve their special privileges. But given the stakes for future American prosperity, it will be worth it.

Dealing with Disruption. It is true that trade is disruptive. Though its longrun effect on employment is approximately zero, in the short run it can cost jobs and even depopulate towns.’ America’s resilience depends on its ability to adjust, but successful and timely adaptation is generally spontaneous in nature—the work of human action but not human design. Planned adjustment by governments has a much poorer track record.

Context is also important to adjustment efforts. Technological change costs approximately six times more jobs as does trade (though, again, only in the short run).°? Any argument made against trade’s disruptive effects applies even more strongly to technological change, yet no one seriously argues for reversing the dramatic changes the Internet has wrought.

More than 11 million American jobs turn over through hirings, firings, retirements, layoffs, and resignations every month,® and nearly 85 percent of all jobs turn over in the course of a year. Yet America has suffered only four bouts of double-digit unemployment during the past century. Two of them, the Great Depression and the comedown from the 1970s stagflation, were due to monetary mismanagement, not trade.” The third, the Great Recession, was due toa financial crisis worsened by monetary mismanagement, not trade.® The fourth was due to COVID-19 lockdowns, not trade.

Using trade restrictions to slow this churn is a mistake for two reasons: (1) trade is at best a minor contributor to job churn compared to other factors like technology, changing consumer tastes, inflation, and business cycles, and (2) churn is evidence of a healthy economy. Agricultural economies have low job churn and low living standards.

When people see better opportunities, they should be allowed to pursue them. To do otherwise slows economic growth, harms individual dignity, removes